What does the surprise column actually measure?

It is the actual release minus the economist consensus forecast, expressed in that indicator's own units — percentage points for inflation, thousands of jobs for payrolls, index points for a PMI.

Why is an inflation beat bullish for the currency but bearish for stocks?

Higher inflation pushes the market to price higher interest rates. That attracts capital into the currency, while raising the discount rate applied to future company earnings and delaying rate cuts, which weighs on equities.

How is the currency score calculated?

Each scoreable release contributes its weight multiplied by its polarity and the sign of its surprise. The total is divided by the weight in play and scaled to a range of minus one hundred to plus one hundred.

Why do some indicators show no surprise or impact?

Not every release carries a published forecast — Japanese headline CPI often does not. Without a forecast there is nothing to beat or miss, so the row shows the actual and previous readings but stays unscored.

How often does the heatmap update?

The snapshot refreshes every minute in the browser, and the underlying calendar data is rescraped on a schedule through the trading day, so a new release appears shortly after it is published.

FX TERMINAL

Economic Heatmap

The economic heatmap turns a country's data flow into one scoreboard. Each release is compared with what economists expected, and the surprise is scored twice: once for the currency and once for risk assets, because a hot inflation print lifts a currency while it weighs on equities. Switch between the eight majors to see whose data is beating and whose is missing.

One screen for a country's whole data flow

Pick a currency and the heatmap lists every indicator that matters for it — growth, inflation, the labour market, business and consumer surveys, trade, the policy rate and housing — with the latest print, the forecast it was measured against, the previous reading and the resulting surprise. Instead of scrolling a calendar of scheduled events, you see the current state of the economy in one table.

Each row shows the exact release it was built from and when the next update lands, so a number is never shown without its date. Releases published without an economist forecast are kept visible but greyed: they tell you where the economy is, they just cannot be scored as a beat or a miss.

Why every release is scored twice

A currency and the stock market do not read the same number the same way. Hotter-than-expected inflation prices in higher interest rates, which supports the currency and pressures equities at the same time; a strong PMI lifts both; a rise in unemployment weighs on both. The heatmap therefore carries two impact columns, one for the currency and one for risk assets, and each indicator has its own polarity behind them.

The summary dials aggregate those signs into a score from minus one hundred to plus one hundred, weighting the top-tier releases — CPI, GDP, payrolls and the policy rate — more heavily than second-tier data. The cross-rate chips then subtract one currency's score from another, because a currency is only ever strong relative to something else.

Trading the surprise, not the number

Markets price the forecast in advance, so the tradeable information in a release is the gap between actual and expected, not whether the level looks high or low. That is why the surprise column sits closest to the indicator name: a 3.5% inflation print is bullish for a currency when 3.2% was expected and bearish when 3.8% was.

Use the heatmap as context rather than as a trigger. A currency whose data has been beating for weeks tends to be the stronger leg of a pair, but the entry still belongs on a chart — pair the macro lean here with the technical levels and positioning views elsewhere in the terminal.

Frequently asked questions

What does the surprise column actually measure?: It is the actual release minus the economist consensus forecast, expressed in that indicator's own units — percentage points for inflation, thousands of jobs for payrolls, index points for a PMI.
Why is an inflation beat bullish for the currency but bearish for stocks?: Higher inflation pushes the market to price higher interest rates. That attracts capital into the currency, while raising the discount rate applied to future company earnings and delaying rate cuts, which weighs on equities.
How is the currency score calculated?: Each scoreable release contributes its weight multiplied by its polarity and the sign of its surprise. The total is divided by the weight in play and scaled to a range of minus one hundred to plus one hundred.
Why do some indicators show no surprise or impact?: Not every release carries a published forecast — Japanese headline CPI often does not. Without a forecast there is nothing to beat or miss, so the row shows the actual and previous readings but stays unscored.
How often does the heatmap update?: The snapshot refreshes every minute in the browser, and the underlying calendar data is rescraped on a schedule through the trading day, so a new release appears shortly after it is published.

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FX Terminal provides free market research and analysis for informational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to trade. Trading forex carries a high level of risk.